Ottawa Real Estate Market in Context
January was another expectedly slow month for real estate in Ottawa. Sales volume and prices continue to trail significantly year-over-year, though month-over-month numbers show a more stable picture. Despite the downward correction we've seen in the last 9 months, both REMAX and Royal LePage are projecting price increases from 2-4% through the fourth quarter of 2023. Let's take a look at some core indicators, within the context of wider market trends, for last month.
Number of Home Sales (Year-Over-Year)
Residential unit sales: 615 (-36.4%)
Freehold unit sales: 465 (-31.9%)
Condo unit sales: 135 (-47.2%)
* Residential sales include all residential properties; freehold includes detached singles, townhouses, and semi-detached homes; and condos include apartments, row units, and stacked-style dwellings.
In January, the pace of home sales remained significantly lower compared to recent years. While this is typically a slow month of the year, Ottawa Realtors only sold 615 units making it the slowest January in over a decade.
The graph below shows monthly sold unit data over the last four years.
Average Prices
The average sale price for freehold property in January was $611,504, a decrease of 10.11% from 2022.
The average sale price for a condominium-class property in December was $411,347, a decrease of 8.72% from 2022.
Given the distorted numbers we saw in Q1 of last year, year-over-year price data will continue to look bleak through winter and into spring. Month-over-month numbers, by contrast, show a more stable picture. Despite another 25 basis point interest rate hike, we saw a marginal increase of 1.03% in average sale prices in January versus December. The table below shows month-over-month price change data for the last twelve months. The next graph shows monthly average sale price data for freehold and condo properties since the beginning of 2019, grouped by calendar year.
Month | Price | % Change |
January 2022 | $680,276 | 10.92% |
February | $750,496 | 10.32% |
March | $758,969 | 1.13% |
April | $739,583 | -2.55% |
May | $718,998 | -2.78% |
June | $686,752 | -4.48% |
July | $649,602 | -5.41% |
August | $635,982 | -2.10% |
September | $644,905 | 1.40% |
October | $624,692 | -3.13% |
November | $620,889 | -0.61% |
December | $605,282 | -2.51% |
January 2023 | $611,504 | 1.03% |
Active Listings by Month
At the end of January, there were 2,301 homes available for sale in Ottawa representing a 14-unit increase from the previous month. In reality, the market traded roughly 600 sold listings for 600 new ones which more or less balanced supply. The chart below shows the active listing data grouped by month since 2019.
Days on Market
Last month, a home took 44 days to sell, on average. This is up from December when homes sold in 39 days. Days on market data since 2019 can be found in the table below.
Months of Inventory
The months of inventory measure ("MOI") is calculated by taking the number of homes available for sale and assessing how long it would take for those to sell if demand remained constant and no new inventory was added to the market. It is a core indicator that helps assess whether we are in a buyer's, seller's, or balanced market.
A balanced market has 4 to 6 months of inventory.
A seller’s market has less than 4 months of inventory.
A buyer's market has more than 6 months of inventory.
In January 2023, there were 3.8 months of inventory available compared to 0.8 in January 2022. Freehold properties increased to 3.8 months from 0.9 months in 2022. Condominium-class properties increased to 3.8 months from 0.8 months in 2022. Ottawa is now, for all intents and purposes, in a balanced market.
*NEW* The chart below shows MOI data by month since 2019.
Historical Average Home Prices in Ottawa (1956-2022)
What This Means for You
It is critical to note that broad aggregate data is useful to establish trends, but significant variability exists at a community and housing-type level. If you are interested in getting a more refined estimate of the value of your home, or if you are interested in beginning your house hunt, please feel free to get in touch.
* Real estate market data is taken from the Ottawa Real Estate Board's Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and is believed to be accurate but is not warranted.
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